Predicting Search Trends Based On Historical Data

A Google R&D post describes analyzing historical search trends patterns to predict future search trends. See, On the predictability of Search Trends.

Predicting search trends based on historical search trend patterns is a difficult challenge. There may be insurmountable obstacles embedded in these sayings: 1) Expect the unexpected, and 2) The only thing that is constant is change.

These are my previous posts about Google Trends:

http://googcomments.blogspot.com/2009/08/public-sector-todays-hot-trends.html

http://googcomments.blogspot.com/2009/01/google-trends-comparing-ice-cream.html

http://googcomments.blogspot.com/2008/12/comment-on-letters-to-nature-detecting.html

http://googcomments.blogspot.com/2008/11/google-trends-measures-what.html

http://googcomments.blogspot.com/2008/06/does-google-trends-data-equate-to.html

Public Sector Today's Hot Trends

A Google public sector team post describes how they would like to "build consumer products and applications that connect citizens to public information and services". See, Hello, world!

Suggestion: Create a Public Sector Today's Hot Trends page - only displaying links, not the trends search box. This would enable citizens and public service providers to see at a glance the top 20 search volume trends for public sector issues.

It is, however, important to keep in mind that Google search trends do not equate to users casting a vote, responding to a poll, or purchasing a consumer product or service.

A vote usually indicates a person is in favor of 1) electing an official or 2) implementing a legislative proposal.

Unlike a vote, if "town halls" or "health care" links appear on a Google Public Sector Today's Hot Trends page, those trends include an aggregation of users with wide-ranging opinions on the issue.